Coronado Global Resources Inc. (CODQL)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 total revenue was $467.9M, down 30.6% year over year and up 4.1% sequentially; revenue missed S&P Global consensus ($491.0M*) by ~$23M while EPS of -$0.45 was modestly below consensus (-$0.43*) .
• Adjusted EBITDA was approximately break-even (-$0.6M), a significant improvement from Q1’s loss trajectory; S&P Global EBITDA actual was -$2.0M*, materially better than the consensus of -$35.7M*; management emphasized ramp-up and cost progress as drivers for H2 .
• Operations delivered a six-year record June ROM month, mining costs per tonne sold fell 18% q/q to $92/t, and both Mammoth and Buchanan expansion projects cut first coal, setting up ~3 Mtpa incremental capacity at full run-rate by Q4 2025 .
• Liquidity actions (new $150M ABL and Stanwell prepayment/deferral) lifted immediately available liquidity to $284M; covenant testing under the ABL begins in the September quarter while ratings downgrades triggered review events that were negotiated without changing terms .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record production momentum: “record producing June month for ROM production that has not been achieved since July 2019,” underpinning saleable production increases and cost leverage .
• Cost execution: Average mining costs per tonne sold fell to $92/t (group), with Australia at $80.6/t and U.S. at $109.6/t; Q2 costs landed at the lower end of guidance .
• Project delivery: Buchanan expansion delivered first coal “on time and within budget”; Mammoth now has three production panels with run-rate targeted by Q4 2025, collectively adding ~3 Mtpa at lower unit cost .

What Went Wrong

• Pricing headwinds: Average realized met price fell to $148/t vs $195/t last year; the price pressure was driven by weak demand, intensified competition, and tariff-related trade flow changes .
• Profitability: Net loss of $76.2M reflects pricing pressure despite cost progress, and group realized met price declined 1.9% q/q to $148.4/t .
• Balance sheet risk: ABL covenant testing begins in the September quarter and recent credit rating downgrades flagged going-concern risk if covenants are breached; review events under the ABL were addressed without term changes, but covenant risk remains .

Financial Results

P&L vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

EPS

Margins (S&P Global)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Adjusted EBITDA

Segment Breakdown – Q2 2025

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No public Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was found; company provided webcast/conference details only . Themes below reflect Q2 results release and HY25 presentation.

Management Commentary

• “Our operations had a great quarter… record producing June month for ROM production… expected to increase into the second half… Mammoth Underground Mine and Buchanan Expansion projects… completion of our cost reduction programs.” – Douglas Thompson, CEO .
• “Breakeven EBITDA achieved in Q2 despite lower average realised coal prices… quarter-on-quarter EBITDA trajectory improvement expected to continue into Q3 and H2… cost and capital reduction of up to ~$80 million on track…” .
• “The ABL Facility with Oaktree and Stanwell transactions were closed… increasing available liquidity by up to $300 million… No major debt maturities up to 2028… No interim dividend declared.” .

Q&A Highlights

• The company scheduled investor calls for Q2 quarterly report and HY25 results, noting recordings would be available; no public transcript text was available for Q2 .
• Prepared remarks emphasized ramp-up timelines (Q4 2025 full run-rate), H2 cost/capex reductions, liquidity runway, and covenant testing resumption in September quarter .

Estimates Context

• Results were a revenue miss and slight EPS miss; EBITDA materially better than consensus (less negative). Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Operational momentum and cost execution are real: mining cost/t fell to $92/t and June ROM hit a six-year high, supporting H2 margin potential even at flat prices .
• Ramp-up is the core H2 catalyst: Mammoth and Buchanan cutting coal, with ~3 Mtpa incremental capacity targeted by Q4 2025; expect lower unit costs and higher cash generation as volumes normalize .
• Liquidity improved but covenants matter: $284M immediate liquidity and no major maturities until 2028, yet covenant testing restarts in September quarter; ratings downgrades already triggered review events (resolved without term changes) .
• Pricing remains the swing factor: realized met prices fell to $148/t; management sees potential H2 improvement driven by tariffs on Chinese steel and supply rationalization, with India demand supportive .
• Near-term trading lens: headline miss on revenue and EPS amid better-than-expected EBITDA; watch for monthly production cadence, realized price progression, and covenant metrics into Q3 .
• Dividend stance conservative: no interim dividend declared as cash is prioritized for operations and liquidity through the cycle .
• Strategic optionality: company continues to explore minority sales and other funding sources while expansions are delivered on time and within budget .

S&P Global disclaimer: All values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.